Columbia, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

805
FXUS64 KOHX 152311
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
611 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 553 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight.
  Strong winds and large hail are the primary threats.

- A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes
  of severe weather to Middle Tennessee Friday evening through the
  overnight hours into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds
  are the main concern.

- Unsettled weather continues next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Middle TN is currently situated under a warm, moist airmass after a
warm front lifted through the area overnight. Dew points are in
the mid to upper 60s with temperatures approaching 80 degrees.
Being directly underneath the exiting ridge today will push our
temperatures up near record values with forecast highs just
touching 90 degrees at Nashville this afternoon. The record high
for today is 93 set back in 2018.

Our upper air pattern will be changing fast upon this ridge exiting
as troughing aloft pushes into the area this evening, bringing with
it a boundary that could spark scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. The latest CAMs keep the better forcing well off to
our northwest, but with how unstable we are slated to get this
afternoon coupled with shear slightly increasing with the incoming
trough, severe parameters are showing up on model soundings,
specifically on the latest HRRR. A large cap is noted with immense
WAA ongoing between 700-850mb this afternoon, so that should help
keep any discrete cells from forming, but if they do, strong to
severe storms posing an all-hazard threat could quickly develop.
Again, forcing isn`t the greatest, but low-level helicity values
are over 100, bulk shear values are near 60 kts, and instability
in all levels is over 2000 J/kg with leftover daytime heating. The
one parameter not quite as great are lapse rates, however, mid-
level lapse rates will be near 7 C/km, so strongest storms could
see up to quarter-size hail. Outside of any scattered activity
that may develop if the cap erodes, the HRRR shows a cluster of
storms developing across west TN around midnight and pushing
through the area overnight. Gusty winds and hail will be the main
threats with the overnight storms. Activity will come to an end by
mid-morning Friday.

Setup Friday: a shortwave will approach from the northwest with a
broad area of diffluent flow near 100 kts at 300mb with a low-
level jet maxima near 60 kts. This will provide much better
forcing for severe thunderstorm development. Southwesterly flow at
850mb will send dew points surging into the 70s by the afternoon,
leading to a highly unstable environment with CAPEs near 3000
J/kg.

Friday afternoon/evening: Models show another strongly capped
environment in place with a large pocket of warm air noted around
700mb, but a highly unstable environment surrounding it. The
chance for discrete cell development out ahead of the main line is
low, however, if any cells do develop, they will pose an all-
hazards risk, including tornadoes. The greatest area of concern
for that to happen is over the northwest quadrant of Middle TN.
Ample shear, helicity, instability, and more than sufficient
lapse rates (8+ C/km) could mean a significant severe threat with
any discrete development.

Friday night: Models continue to show an MCS coming together over
our northwest and pushing southeast through the entire area.
Timing for the main line is roughly 7PM-1AM Saturday. With the
line itself, damaging winds (65+ mph) and large hail will be the
primary threats. There is sufficient low-level helicity and low
LCLs to support a spin-up tornado threat along the leading edge of
the line as well. Lastly, very heavy downpours can be expected
with the line as PWATs approach 2", but widespread flooding isn`t
a concern as the line will likely be moving quite fast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Activity will come to an end early Saturday morning, and the
remainder of the day will be dry upon the passage of the cold
front. Still going to be pretty warm with highs in the 80s and
breezy winds between 10-15 mph. A small disturbance aloft will
bring medium scattered rain and thunderstorm chances to the area,
especially across the southwest with rain chances near 60% Sunday
afternoon. As we shift into the new week, the upper air pattern
suggests it will be another active weather week as another deep
trough ejects out of the Rockies Monday. As this feature treks
eastward, daily rain and storm chances will remain in the
forecast through at least next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Radar has been showing patches of light reflectivity late this
afternoon, but most of these returns are from mid level clouds
with very little showing at the surface. With a capped off
atmosphere, we expect a mainly dry evening with VFR conditions
across the area. Somewhat gusty SSW winds will settle around 10KT.

Later in the night, there could be some showers and storms from a
possible weakening MCS coming from our west. Temporary impacts on
cigs/vsbys look likely for CKV, but probs are low and very
uncertain elsewhere. I think the HRRR may be over-done outside
the CKV area given the mid level warm air profile.

For daytime Friday, gusty SSW winds over 25KT at times will kick
in. VFR will continue through the day. A band of storms with some
severe wx is expected to sweep across Middle TN just after the
end of this taf period, after 17/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  88  68  87 /  40  50  90  10
Clarksville    72  86  66  85 /  60  70  90  10
Crossville     68  83  63  81 /  30  40  90  20
Columbia       72  86  67  86 /  40  30  90  10
Cookeville     70  83  65  81 /  40  50  90  10
Jamestown      68  84  63  81 /  30  50  90  10
Lawrenceburg   71  85  67  85 /  30  20  90  10
Murfreesboro   72  87  67  86 /  40  40  90  10
Waverly        68  85  64  84 /  60  60  90  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....13